Weather

Southeast Texas May See Heavy Rain From Surge of Tropical Moisture by the End of the Weekend

Latest Modeling points towards locally heavy rainfall Sunday night through at least Tuesday.

BEAUMONT, Texas ā€” A tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean, near Honduras, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity that’s expected to bring a lot of rain to Southeast Texas at the top of next week. 

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast.

Regardless of development, a surge of tropical moisture will move northwest out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico and then spread into the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday. 

Sunday Night, the surge of moisture will arrive along the Texas Coast. 

Latest Modeling points towards locally heavy rainfall Sunday night through at least Tuesday.

The EURO model is showing rainfall amounts upward of 12 to 15 inches in the region.  

Credit: KBMT

Credit: 12News StormTrackers

Credit: 12News StormTrackers

The GFS model is showing upwards of a foot of rain in spots across Southeast Texas from Sunday through Tuesday.

Southeast Texas could see several inches of rainfall Sunday through Tuesday depending on where the tropical moisture surge lands across the coast.

Credit: 12News StormTrackers

Credit: 12News StormTrackers

From the National Hurricane Center at  7 a.m. CDT…

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Yucatan peninsula.  

This system is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. 

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central America through Saturday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. 
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

https://interactive.wtsp.com/mobile/tropicsmap.html

Written by 12News StormTrackers

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